Saturday, October 17, 2015

Predictions on "Turkey" Abridged

Lycurgus Consulting the Pythia (1835/1845), as imagined by Eugène Delacroix.
Full-blown civil war in the landmass we incorrectly call "Turkey" is not only inevitable but just around the corner as well. HDP will reenter parliament. Government formation will again prove problematic.

Rojava (Syria's Kurdistan), as a result primarily of the Russian campaign, will unite, thus allowing a mini Western Kurdistan to begin to follow in the footsteps of Southern Kurdistan. This will mean RoT (Republic of Turkey) will no longer have a border with Syria but instead with Syria's largely autonomous Western Kurdistan.

Civil war will break out soon after Rojava is united and before it is allowed to take root. In 2016 sometime. HDP will be declared an illegal entity with charges for lending support to terrorism and working against the unity of the state. The civil war will last a few years. The Kurdish motto shall be "Freedom or Death".

Rojava (in purple) is almost united; Turkey backed
terrorists (ISIS mostly) stand in the way 

Occupistan (aka "turkish protectorate of northern Cyprus") will be embroiled as well.

The TSK (Turkish army) will attack civilians in the east and the PKK will return the favour by attacking civilians in the west.

"Turkey" 's economy will crumble.

De-facto partition will take root.

The United Nations will be forced upon RoT by its NATO allies to broker a truce.

Is RoC (Republic of Cyprus) ready to exploit developments or will it commit premature bizonal suicide?

Anastassiades must have a 63-based complete solution ready for Mustafa Akinci to sign. No zones. No apartheid. No obscene rights for the minority but full protection and safeguards under the upgraded Cyprus constitution.

All Cypriots must learn and speak Greek, like they did before 1960. That's what makes us Cypriots at the end of the day, because language is the main carrier of a people's ethos as well.

Ps. The last prediction on June 10th 2015 (Source #2), a few days after the last (June 7th) Turkish election was that a coalition formation would prove impossible, new elections would be called & that HDP will reenter parliament likely with more MPs than MHP. Before the June 7th elections, ie before the revolution of HDP entering parliament, when polls showed it at the threshold, my guess was 14%.

Source #1: Prediction on October 10th 2015 about the Nov 1 2015 elections
Source #2: Prediction on June 10th 2015 (in Greek) about the day after
Source #3: Prediction on May 22 2015 about the June 7th elections

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Turkey's Kurds & Cyprus' tCypriots

As either unitary state or federation solutions are discussed as replacements to Cyprus' 1960 and Turkey's 1923 unworkable constitutions, should we abide by "if a right is a right too many for Turkey's Kurdish community (circa 23% of population) then that right is a right too many for Cyprus' tCypriot community too (circa 15%), and vice versa." Is the adoption of this fair logic the catalyst to securing just solutions for both UN countries.