Brexit: a Blessing for Cyprus

In a previous post I argued that Cyprus should favour Brexit. But as I was watching Cameron last night describe what Brexit would mean for the UK I became more convinced than ever that Brexit would be a blessing for Cyprus. If the UK backed Brexit, Cameron said, the UK would be left outside the negotiating room, "our nose pressed to the window, trying to find out what decision they were making", adding: "That would be terrible."

Indeed. It would be, for the UK. And as a result it would seek as much inside information and influence as possible. No EU member (with the exception of Malta perhaps) is both Britain-friendly but also small enough to allow not merely a peek inside but also influence on EU policies. In other words, Cyprus would cease being just a geostrategic rock in the the eastern Mediterranean loaded with all kinds of "sovereign" critical surveillance and mission enabling infrastructure, but it would also become an extremely attractive political ally, in the true sense of the word.

All the UK has to do to maintain its geostrategic privilege of the military bases is smile. The "sovereignty" bit makes it so. But for the political privilege the British would have to do a great deal more than smile. They would have to give. And it so happens we have something to ask for in return. Urgently. Freedom from 60's & BBF's political apartheid and 74's geographic division. The smiles would no longer cut it for the natives.

An Unexpected Geopolitical Giant

Cyprus has quite a few things going in its favor. First, international law. Unless the UN member Republic of Cyprus decides to cancel itself, and why should it, that's all there is in as far as the law is concerned, a Cyprus spanning all corners of the island, legally speaking. Second, the same legal entity, legal as per the highest law of the earth, the UN charter, is also a member of the European Union, the greatest and most tightly knit intranational grouping since the end of WWII, and a member of EU-17, the hard European core that uses the same currency.