Friday, February 13, 2015

The Cyprus Model

Assume that Americans and their NATO allies are right 100% in saying that Putin is provoking the escalation of tension in south and eastern Ukraine. Imagine that after sufficient "provocations" from the Ukrainians Putin has had enough and outright invades Ukraine, even bombs Kiev, and chases pro-western Ukrainians away by force from the south and the east of the country. Imagine further that Poroshenko makes a desperate plea at the United Nations for the cessation of hostilities & the respect of his country's territorial integrity. Imagine that a temporary exchange of populations is agreed, so that all Russians of Ukraine move to the Russia-occupied south and east of the country, or the Russia occupied half of Kiev, as well as allowing the remaining few Ukrainians to move to the free Ukraine. Imagine that the United Nations, unable/unwilling to chase Putin out and after six years of dead-end talks, "convinces" the Ukrainians to pursue a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation, based on the Cyprus 2004 Annan Plan, as the only realistic way out of the conflict that preserves the fundamental goal of keeping the country united, insisting that such plan is in line with the organization's principles. Just imagine. And Putin would be right in asserting that unlike Cyprus, bizonality in Ukraine was a pre-exisiting condition, not the result of ethnic cleansing. See map below.

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Turkey's Kurds & Cyprus' tCypriots

As either unitary state or federation solutions are discussed as replacements to Cyprus' 1960 and Turkey's 1923 unworkable constitutions, should we abide by "if a right is a right too many for Turkey's Kurdish community (circa 23% of population) then that right is a right too many for Cyprus' tCypriot community too (circa 15%), and vice versa." Is the adoption of this fair logic the catalyst to securing just solutions for both UN countries.