Monday, December 17, 2012

It's inevitable

The landmass we incorrectly refer to as "Turkey" will disintegrate to some extend or another. Erdogan's choices, though intended to prevent the worst case scenario, are in actual fact expediting the inevitable.

I dare predict that the utter and complete failure, expected in 2013 sometime, to adopt a western constitution that addresses just Kurdish demands and introduces wider democratization reforms, will be a turning point in "Turkey" 's history & the beginning of a lethal spiral into unprecedented uncertainty as well as misery for all the constituent parts of the country.

I don't know how many pieces "Turkey" will disintegrate into but I can safely say that the reaction of ethnic Turks to developments will determine how bad it all goes for them. I am more than certain though that if ethnic Turks choose to react in traditional ultra nationalistic fashion then there will be a civil war between the Islamist and the Kemalist ethnic Turks in the leftover Turkey, each blaming the other for the disintegration of the "nation" and the disgrace brought upon it.

We can also predict with certainty that a de-facto Kurdistan will be born with Amed (ethnic Turks call this occupied city as Diyarbakir) as its capital which will immediately unite de-facto with western Kurdistan (northern Syria) and southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq). The new Kurdistan will no longer need "Turkey" for its energy exports as it will have access to the Mediterranean via its western part.

Kurds will be the darling child of the west for one reason alone (if they realize this they will profit hugely in the long term):

They are the only Muslim nation in the Middle East that is fundamentally secular enough to give a "western" interpretation to Islam & keep it out of politics completely (aside from the label, as per Christian Democrat traditions of most western nations).

The Kurdish woman makes the difference in this Muslim nation. She can be religious by choice but she is free by definition.

The Economist | Out of the chrysalis The rise and rise of a new sense of power Dec 15th 2012

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Turkey's Kurds & Cyprus' tCypriots

As either unitary state or federation solutions are discussed as replacements to Cyprus' 1960 and Turkey's 1923 unworkable constitutions, should we abide by "if a right is a right too many for Turkey's Kurdish community (circa 23% of population) then that right is a right too many for Cyprus' tCypriot community too (circa 15%), and vice versa." Is the adoption of this fair logic the catalyst to securing just solutions for both UN countries.