Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Turkey's energy frustrations

Dean Plassaras · Principal στην εταιρεία P&A Consulting LLC - "Turkey's frustration is easy to understand. 1) Nabucco is dead or nearly dead. The recent completion of Nord Stream will provide EU/Germany with natural gas supplies the size of two Nabuccos. 2) The Israeli Leviathan gas find, which is in close proximity to Block 12, is considered to be Europe bound and will contribute to EU energy security. Most and foremost, any natural gas and oil found in Cypriot waters is a European energy asset. Its significance is even larger when one considers that North Sea O&G supplies are declining and that Easterm Mediterranean is providing a replacement." - comment made at Campaign to neutralise Turkey gas protests By Elias Hazou Published on August 9, 2011 CYPRUS MAIL Campaign to neutralise Turkey gas protests
By Elias HazouPublished on August 9, 2011

THE GOVERNMENT is initiating an international campaign to lay bare Ankara’s aggressive foreign policy, in response to Turkish threats last week over plans here for offshore gas drilling. Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis said yesterday the government would notify foreign capitals as well as make “strong” representations to international organisations, including the United Nations Security Council and the European Union. Marcoullis will be discussing the matter with her counterparts in the Greek government during a visit to Athens later this week, with the aim of devising a common strategy to counter the Turkish threats.

The government is also considering reporting the Turkish gas threats to the UN Secretariat in the hopes that the UN Secretary-General will include them in his remarks in his next progress report on the Cyprus talks later this year. Attributing Ankara’s warnings to the “usual posturing”, Marcoullis said Turkey has apparently yet to realise that it must play by the rules of the international game if it wants to join the EU. A threat made against an EU-member is a threat against the whole bloc, she added. Ankara cannot give others lessons in international law while it has not even signed the Law of the Sea, noted Marcoullis.

On Friday Turkey’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling Cyprus’ offshore gas exploration activities “unlawful” and being in violation of international norms. “International law dictates that the delimitation of the continental shelf or the exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is indeed a semi-enclosed sea, should be effected between the relevant states in an equitable manner, taking into account the rights and interests of all parties,” the statement said.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry warned that such agreements and exploration activities in the southern Mediterranean would “negatively affect the settlement of the Cyprus question and lead to new conflicts among the countries in the region. This was followed up by remarks on the same day by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who warned Ankara would “show the appropriate reaction” if Greek Cypriots went ahead with drilling for hydrocarbons. Davutoglu's remarks came after an announcement here earlier last week that US firm Noble Energy would commence hydrocarbon drilling off the island's southern coast by October.

Ankara considers that it has rights in an area that runs from Turkey’s southern coast through to the northern shores of Egypt, just west of Cyprus’ western tip. It also claims that any agreements made by the Republic of Cyprus – which it does not recognise – are void unless and until the island is reunited and both communities are represented.

Also reacting to the latest Turkish warnings was House Speaker Yiannakis Omirou, who said Turkey is behaving like a “modern-day pirate”. Cyprus has signed Exclusive Economic Zone agreements with Egypt, Israel and Lebanon. The Lebanese parliament has yet to ratify the deal.

Turkish daily Hurriyet meanwhile reported that this week the Turkish Embassy in Washington is conveying to the US administration its discontent with Noble Energy’s plans to begin drilling. Citing sources in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the paper said Turkey has already conveyed its reservations to the UN, Noble Energy and the US government. Hürriyet reported also that Turkey plans to relay its concerns with the members of the UN Security Council.

But an international relations expert here said Turkey’s noises would fall on deaf ears: “What they’re doing, which is the same song and dance, is to try and force oil companies, who are interested in the Cyprus gas prospects, to have second thoughts” said Christos Iacovou. “I believe it extreme unlikely that Turkey will do anything aggressive, not while an American company is involved,” he added.

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Turkey's Kurds & Cyprus' tCypriots

As either unitary state or federation solutions are discussed as replacements to Cyprus' 1960 and Turkey's 1923 unworkable constitutions, should we abide by "if a right is a right too many for Turkey's Kurdish community (circa 23% of population) then that right is a right too many for Cyprus' tCypriot community too (circa 15%), and vice versa." Is the adoption of this fair logic the catalyst to securing just solutions for both UN countries.