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I know all of us are busy, thus I shall be brief. Mayhem breaks out in "Turkey" between Kemalists and Islamists. Kurds draw their own "green line" and declare a de-facto North Kurdistan autonomy. Erdogan prevails militarily in the west and attempts to recapture the east. South Kurdistan declares its secession from Iraq and unites with North Kurdistan. The USA and various western followers support the new marriage and recognize the new Republic of Kurdistan. Kurdistan joins NATO, while at the same time Islamic "Turkey" is thrown out. The Republic of Cyprus immediately joins NATO too. NATO warns "Turkey" to remove its troops from Cyprus. Egypt, Turkey, Iraq and possibly Iran challenge NATO on the Israeli, Cypriot, Iraqi and Mediterranean fronts (EEZ).
Assad makes a deal to stay put, he keeps Syria except the northern Kurdish corridor. The Islamic alliance loses in what is to be known as the IIIWW (Three Week War) and a new state of affairs is recognized at the United Nations, with a smaller de-militarized Turkey, a demilitarized Egypt, both with constitutions drafted by the west, a free Cyprus, and a new Kurdish Republic, secular and democratic, which includes its Syrian and possibly its Iranian part too, depending on whether Iran has stayed neutral or not.